National Housing Market Trends
National home prices are showing signs of slowing down, with predictions indicating that forthcoming interest rate cuts may not be sufficient to prevent further declines in house prices in the coming year.
Current Price Trends
According to the latest data from CoreLogic, property prices nationwide rose by a modest 0.1% in the last month of spring, marking the weakest performance across Australia since January 2023. Remarkably, house prices have elevated by 5.5% over the last year, with the median housing value reaching $812,933.
Regional Insights
In Melbourne, home values have suffered a decline for 10 out of the past 12 months, recording a drop of 0.4% in the last month, leading to an overall decrease of 2.3% year-over-year. Sydney also faced a decline, with CoreLogic indicating that August likely represented the peak of the cycle, as values fell by 0.1% in October and 0.2% in November.
When looking at quarterly changes, four of the eight major capitals reported declines, led by Melbourne (down 1.0%), followed by Darwin (down 0.7%), Sydney (down 0.5%), and Canberra (down 0.3%).
Market Forecasts
Eliza Owen, CoreLogic’s head of research, noted that while there has been a consecutive increase for 22 months, this trend may not hold. She mentioned, “It could be the last monthly increase we see for a while due to economic conditions placing strain on households, leading to a decrease in buyer demand.”
Buyer’s Market Emergence
The current downturn in price growth coincides with an increase in listings as more owner-occupiers and investors contemplate selling their properties. This trend is most prevalent in Melbourne and Sydney.
Rising Listings
CoreLogic reports that the number of houses and units advertised for sale has surged by 16% since the end of winter, with Perth experiencing the most significant increase at 33%, followed by Adelaide at 25%.
Interestingly, listings in Sydney and Melbourne are currently tracking 10.4% and 9.1% above their respective five-year averages, reaching the highest levels for this time of year since 2018.
Market Conditions for Sellers
According to Ms. Owen, the market is increasingly skewed in favor of buyers rather than sellers. “The combination of rising stock levels and fewer buyers than this time last year indicates a shift in market dynamics,” she stated. Moreover, combined clearance rates in capital cities have been below 60% for the last six weeks, indicating longer selling times.
Should You Sell Your Home Without an Agent?
In this buyer-friendly market, some individuals are choosing to sell their homes independently. Comedian Brett D’Souza attempted to sell his home in Melbourne’s Brunswick suburb without an agent last year.
D’Souza faced challenges in positioning his home effectively and expressed some regret for not engaging an agent earlier. “There was an unrealistic expectation regarding pricing,” he admitted, highlighting that he initially listed the home during a period of rising interest rates.
Tips from Experience
D’Souza encourages others considering selling independently to conduct thorough research and adopt realistic pricing strategies. He reflects, “It’s not brain surgery. You just need to follow up with interested buyers and ensure you’re presenting your home well.”
Expectations for 2025
Looking ahead, Eliza Owen asserts that ongoing declines in house prices are anticipated next year, regardless of whether homeowners choose to sell with or without agents. “While anticipated interest rate cuts could stimulate demand, the expectation seems to be continuously postponed,” she stated.
Potential Market Dynamics
CoreLogic suggests that the uncertain economic landscape, alongside geopolitical risks and fluctuating demand in significant markets like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, will further shape the housing market outlook.
Even as the national rental index shows a slight increase, the growth pace remains notably subdued, reflecting broader market conditions.
